- Researchers predict that the obesity rate among U.S. adults will rise to 47% of the population by 2035.
- They say the increases will be particularly significant among certain ethnicities as well as certain ages.
- Experts say this trend can be reversed if people are educated about lifestyle changes and healthy food is made more accessible.
A new report predicts that close to half of U.S. adults will be diagnosed with obesity a decade from now.
The analysis, published as an original investigation in the
That compares with the 107 million U.S. adults currently estimated to have obesity. They comprise about 42% of the population.
The researchers said the increase would also be a significant increase over the 34 million U.S. adults who comprised about 20% of the population who had obesity in 1990.
The predicted trend runs counter to a Gallup poll published in October 2025 that proclaimed that obesity rates have actually decreased slightly the past three years.
That survey credited the utilization of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs for the decline. The numbers, however, were based on participants’ self-reported height and weight measurements.
The researchers of the current study said the obesity trend has become a “large public health burden” and urged the country’s leaders to use the information to craft health policies to combat the increase.
“Given the association between obesity and adverse health outcomes, and the resulting rapidly rising healthcare costs, these findings underscore the importance of addressing the burden of obesity in the U.S.,” the study authors wrote.
Kristin Kirkpatrick, RD, the president of KAK Consulting and a dietitian at the Cleveland Clinic Department of Wellness & Preventive Medicine in Ohio, said the obesity rate has been increasing the past three decades for a variety of reasons.
“The reasons are multifaceted,” Kirkpatrick told Healthline. “Our food has changed, which is a major factor. However, it’s not the only aspect of the story. Added stress, screen time (sedentary behavior), sleep patterns, and concurrent increases in poor mental and physical health have all contributed.”
David Cutler, MD, a family medicine physician at Providence Saint John’s Health Center in Santa Monica, CA, agreed there are a multitude of factors.
“This rise in obesity rates is largely attributable to changes in our diet,” he told Healthline. “But there are factors other than diet also contributing to increasing obesity. Factors other than diet impacting obesity include the intestinal microbiome, exercise, other behaviors like tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, behavioral disorders like anxiety, depression, [attention deficit disorder], and the drug treatments of many disorders.”
“It’s a combination of things,” added Mir Ali, MD, a general surgeon, bariatric surgeon, and the medical director of MemorialCare Surgical Weight Loss Center at Orange Coast Medical Center in California.
“There is more of a sedentary lifestyle with people staying inside their homes and not being active,” he told Healthline. “There’s also been a great increase in the amounts of processed foods. Foods that aren’t healthy have exploded in use.”
To reach their conclusions, the researchers in the newly released report utilized body mass index (BMI) data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (
They also examined self-reported height and weight data from the
In all, the researchers analyzed data from more than 11 million U.S. adults.
They reported there is an overall upward trend across the country, leading them to project a 47% obesity rate by 2035.
The researchers stated that projections vary substantially from state to state with the highest prevalence in Midwestern and Southern areas.
They also noted differences in certain ethnic and racial groups.
The researchers reported that 40% of U.S. white male adults now have obesity compared to 42% of Hispanic males as well as nearly 50% of Hispanic females and 57% of non-Hispanic Black female adults.
They also said that obesity prevalence is highest among adults 45 years to 64 years old with the largest increases in the youngest adult ages, especially for females under the age of 35.
“While there are large differences by race and ethnicity, sex, age, and state, the prevalence of obesity is high and forecasted to continue increasing for all groups,” the researchers wrote.
Kirkpatrick said it will be a tough challenge for the country to reverse this trend.
“It’s hard to predict, but if we continue to see increases in easy-to-access, cheap processed foods alongside reductions in physical activity, these numbers are probably not far off,” she said.
Obesity is considered a long-term chronic condition that progresses over time. It’s defined as excess body fat that can impair health.
Obesity has been associated with a higher risk of developing certain conditions. They include:
The primary cause of obesity is described as simply taking in more calories than are burned in daily activities and physical exercise. There are other factors that can increase the risk of obesity. They include:
- genetics
- age
- inadequate sleep
- high stress
- pregnancy weight
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Researchers in the latest study said the obesity epidemic has had a substantial impact on individuals as well as on society in general.
“Obesity is associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, including all-cause mortality, cancers, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, musculoskeletal conditions, and Alzheimer disease,” the researchers wrote.
“Obesity has led to higher disease burden and higher costs for the health care system,” they added.
Cutler agrees the impacts from obesity are significant.
“Obesity affects both the risk of developing many conditions and the severity of existing diseases,” he said. “Major health problems linked to obesity include diseases affecting nearly every organ system.”
“Many musculoskeletal conditions are also worsened by obesity such as osteoarthritis (especially weight-bearing joints: knees, hips, spine), chronic back, and overall joint pain,” Cutler added. “Respiratory diseases such as obstructive sleep apnea, COPD, and asthma are also worse when obesity is present. So is chronic kidney disease.”
The introduction of GLP-1 weight loss drugs has helped people manage obesity and control their weight.
The most commonly prescribed of these medications are Ozempic and Wegovy, which contain the active ingredient semaglutide, and Mounjaro and Zepbound, which contain the active ingredient tirzepatide.
Gastric bypass surgery is also an option for some people.
Experts point out that these treatments do not magically cause weight loss. They simply suppress a person’s appetite, causing them to consume fewer calories on a daily basis.
“GLP-1s are also only one side of the story — being on one alone does not guarantee success,” said Kirkpatrick.
Ali also noted that GLP-1 drugs are not widely available and aren’t covered by a number of insurance companies.
“These drugs are very expensive to pay for out of pocket,” he said.
Experts stress that a person still needs to adopt healthy lifestyle habits to lose weight, whether or not they have surgery or continue using GLP-1 drugs.
“Other lifestyle factors need to be adhered to alongside use of the medication, such as a nutrient-dense diet meeting optimal macronutrients, physical activity, including both resistance training and aerobic training, and work toward improved relationship with food as well,” said Kirkpatrick.
Experts encourage people with weight management issues to eat a balanced, heart healthy diet consisting mostly of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and lean protein.
They also recommend a minimum of 20 to 30 minutes of moderate daily exercise that can include walking, swimming, or bicycling.
Kirkpatrick said it’s important to make healthy eating accessible and convenient.
“Better access to fresh, nutrient-dense foods may be the next logical next step as well as focusing on factors such as sleep, stress and physical activity,” she said. “Education is always key but real change needs to start with making nutrient-dense foods affordable and easy to obtain for everyone.”
Cutler said the challenge to lower obesity rates is daunting.
“My guess is that obesity rates will continue to rise,” he said. “My basis for this conclusion is that human behavior is very difficult to change. Altering eating behaviors will be very challenging.”
“As far as medical treatment goes, while GLP1 drugs are generally safe and effective, historically people have been poorly compliant with medical therapies when they don’t see immediate benefits,” Cutler added.
Ali said early education about weight management in all sectors of society is key.
“There needs to be a concerted effort to introduce education at an early age,” he said.
Ali said this information at a young age will help people form healthy habits in terms of diet and regular exercise on their own.
“It’s easy to tell people what they should do, but it’s more difficult to get them to do it,” he said.