The total fertility rate (TFR) is the most widely used measurement by healthcare organizations and researchers to better understand and predict population trends.
It measures the total number of live births a birthing person might have during their reproductive years (15 to 49 years) if, each year, they experienced the current age-specific fertility rates of their country.
The TFR is expressed as a
When assessing for population growth or decline, experts use a “replacement” or “maintenance” TFR of 2.1. This indicates that each person is “replaced” by someone else, so there’s no population growth or decline, barring other factors like migration.
Since the 1950s, however, global TFRs have been decreasing drastically. Research suggests that more than 50% of countries worldwide are below the 2.1 maintenance TFR, and by the year 2100, experts predict that 93% of countries will be below this rate.
Continue reading to discover more about fertility rates in the United States and worldwide, some possible reasons why TFRs are declining, and the potential implications for society.
A note on TFR data
TFRs may vary between organizations and researchers. This may depend on several factors, such as the source of the data and the precise definitions and criteria used for TFR.
Despite this, however, experts agree that TFRs are declining steadily across the world.
The TFR in the United States in 2023 was 1.62, according to data compiled by the
The table below presents the 2023 crude fertility rates (CFR) for each U.S. state, compiled from data provided by the
The number of live births also decreased by 14% during this 33-year period, further highlighting the downward trend in births.
| Fertility rate | U.S. state |
|---|---|
| 42.1 to 54 | • Vermont • District Of Columbia • Rhode Island • Oregon • New Hampshire • Maine • Massachusetts • Colorado • Connecticut • California • Illinois • Nevada • Washington • New Mexico • Pennsylvania • Michigan • Montana • New York • West Virginia • Virginia • Wisconsin • Florida |
| 54 to 58.3 | • Maryland • Arizona • Delaware • Wyoming • Georgia • Minnesota • Missouri • South Carolina • North Carolina • Ohio • Hawaii • New Jersey • Idaho • Alabama |
| 58.3 to 60.8 | • Indiana • Tennessee • Iowa • Oklahoma • Arkansas • Mississippi • Kansas • Utah • Kentucky • Louisiana • Texas |
| 60.8 to 64.1 | • North Dakota • Alaska • Nebraska |
| 64.1 to 80 | • South Dakota |
The tables below present the 2024 estimated TFRs for the 10 countries with the highest rates and the 10 countries with the lowest rates, according to data from 227 countries, compiled by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
10 countries with the highest TFRs
| Country | TFR |
|---|---|
| Niger | 6.64 |
| Angola | 5.7 |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 5.49 |
| Mali | 5.35 |
| Benin | 5.34 |
| Chad | 5.24 |
| Uganda | 5.17 |
| Somalia | 5.12 |
| South Sudan | 5.09 |
| Burundi | 4.9 |
10 countries with the lowest TFRs
| Country | TFR |
|---|---|
| Taiwan | 1.11 |
| South Korea | 1.12 |
| Singapore | 1.17 |
| Ukraine | 1.22 |
| Hong Kong | 1.24 |
| Macau | 1.24 |
| Moldova | 1.26 |
| Puerto Rico | 1.26 |
| Italy | 1.26 |
| Spain | 1.3 |
It’s important to remember that TFRs may vary between organizations. While these TFRs are all above 1, data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs suggests that TFRs in China, Ukraine, Singapore, and the Republic of Korea are below 1.
Where does the United States rank?
According to the CIA’s TFR data, the United States ranks in the middle of global fertility rates at 133, with an estimated TFR of 1.84.
There are many social, economic, cultural, and environmental factors that may contribute to lower TFRs globally. And, each society will have its own definition of an “ideal” TFR and which factors are affecting it.
It’s also important to note that not all contributing factors to a declining TFR are inherently negative.
Researchers have found it difficult to collate and generalize the underlying causes of declining TFRs, but they have identified several patterns that can apply to multiple countries.
For instance, several studies note that a common contributor to lower TFRs in developed countries over the past 15 to 20 years is a shift in cultural norms and “gender roles.”
In particular, people assigned female at birth have had more access to education and career opportunities, as well as increased autonomy over reproductive health and contraception.
This is certainly a positive shift. But in the context of TFRs specifically, it may lower them because people who can become pregnant may be more likely to delay pregnancy or decide not to become pregnant at all.
Many other factors may also contribute to a decline in TFRs, such as:
- increased costs of living and raising children
- perceptions of an “ideal family size,” which are now smaller
- higher male and female infertility rates
- increased exposure to environmental contaminants and natural disasters
- increased use of contraception and barrier methods during sex
- limited reproductive health awareness or education in certain populations
- limited governmental aid, support, and services for raising children in certain populations
- laws regarding the maximum number of births a person can have in certain populations
There are many effects of a declining TFR on the economic, social, and cultural well-being of a country, some positive, and others negative.
The most commonly discussed effects of a declining TFR are the impact of an aging population. A higher ratio of older adults to younger people will result in increased needs for healthcare services, but fewer people will be available to provide them or the finances needed to support them.
A smaller population will also likely lead to later retirement ages and increased taxes to support social services.
On the other hand, a decreasing TFR may have several positive benefits, such as:
- reducing the environmental impact of industrialisation
- increasing housing availability for younger people
- investing in more personalized education and healthcare services
Total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the number of live births a birthing person can theoretically have during their reproductive years.
For the global population to remain stable, the TFR should be around 2.1. However, experts suggest that TFRs are declining rapidly, and by 2100, almost all countries are predicted to have a TFR below 2.1.
If you’re thinking of having a baby but are concerned, consider speaking with a healthcare professional. They can provide you with the information, sources, and support you need to make a decision.